El crédito privado en el autoempleo: Un estudio del caso boliviano
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61347/ei.v5iEsp.1.315Palabras clave:
Autoempleo, Bolivia, crédito privado, inclusión financiera, mercado laboral, modelo VAR, tasa de interésResumen
La presente investigación analiza el impacto del crédito privado en el autoempleo en Bolivia durante el período 1991–2024, en un contexto caracterizado por altos niveles de informalidad laboral y limitadas oportunidades de empleo formal. El estudio se fundamenta en un enfoque teórico que vincula el acceso al financiamiento con la capacidad de los individuos para emprender actividades económicas independientes, superando restricciones de liquidez. El objetivo principal es determinar si el crédito al sector privado influye significativamente en el nivel de autoempleo, considerando también variables macroeconómicas como la tasa de interés real, el crecimiento económico per cápita y el desempleo. Metodológicamente, se emplea un modelo econométrico de tipo Vector Autorregresivo (VAR) con cuatro rezagos, lo que permite analizar las relaciones dinámicas entre las variables a lo largo del tiempo, así como los efectos de corto y mediano plazo mediante funciones impulso-respuesta y descomposición de la varianza del error de predicción. Los resultados indican que el crédito privado no presenta un efecto estadísticamente significativo sobre el autoempleo, lo que sugiere que su influencia es limitada o indirecta en el contexto boliviano. En contraste, la tasa de interés real muestra un impacto negativo y significativo, afectando las decisiones de los individuos para emprender actividades por cuenta propia. El análisis dinámico revela que los efectos del crédito son transitorios y tienden a disiparse rápidamente, mientras que el autoempleo presenta alta persistencia y responde principalmente a factores estructurales del mercado laboral. Estos hallazgos sugieren la necesidad de políticas integrales que combinen inclusión financiera con estrategias de desarrollo productivo y formalización del empleo, fortaleciendo la efectividad de las intervenciones crediticias y promoviendo un crecimiento sostenible del autoempleo en Bolivia.
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Derechos de autor 2026 Nadia Elida Maya Ramírez Córdova
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