Análisis de cambio en la precipitación extrema en Oruro. Una evaluación preliminar con datos observados y reanálisis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61347/ei.v4i4.193Palabras clave:
Mann-Kendall, pendiente de Sen, precipitación extrema, reanálisis ERA5, tendenciasResumen
El cambio climático ha alterado la frecuencia e intensidad de los eventos de precipitación extrema, especialmente en regiones vulnerables. Este estudio analiza las tendencias históricas de los índices de precipitación extrema en Oruro, Bolivia, durante 1943–2012, utilizando datos observados de la estación AASANA y reanálisis ERA5. Se calcularon los siguientes índices climáticos: Rx1day, Rx5day, R10mm, R20mm, PRCPTOT, CDD y CWD. Para evaluar tendencias se aplicaron: el test de Mann-Kendall, la pendiente de Sen y métricas de desempeño (RMSE, sesgo, correlación de Pearson) para comparar los reanálisis con las observaciones. Los resultados muestran ausencia de tendencias significativas en todos los índices, aunque los productos ERA5 reproducen razonablemente los patrones observados. Estos hallazgos aportan información para la planificación hídrica, agrícola y gestión de riesgos, y sientan las bases para futuros estudios de proyección climática en la región.
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Derechos de autor 2025 Lina Carla Fernández Gutiérrez, Jackson David Tellez Alvarez
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 4.0.
